2024 GOP Primary

[Mr. Deez]

Yes, but I think most Americans would be appalled by that because it has backfired. Thus I think the judge may NOT jail him because of the backlash. I agree with you it’s a wild card. I think the biggest wild card is the debate before hand. If Trump wins the debate and then goes to jail, it will be an easy Trump win.

I think the sentence will be very revealing and give us a clear picture of what Democratic power brokers actually believe about the race. I suspect he'll hand down a light sentence (could even just be a fine) if Democrats believe she is on her way to victory, because doing otherwise would rock the boat and disrupt her momentum. However, if they're not confident in her victory, then I suspect he'll hand down a harsher sentence, because he'll want something to disrupt Trump's momentum and reset the race. Obviously it has its risks, but when you're losing, you take bigger risks.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Harris bump over in GA. Trump winning easy.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Note NYT latest polls has Trump down in NC. NYT polls are junk.

 

[mchammer]

Ding ding ding

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

In this latest poll, it is basically tied at the battleground state level if you take it at face value. Open tweet to see granularity at the state level. Note that means Kamala has lost 2 points or so since her peak. Need 2 more points.

 

[mchammer]

Confirmation that the bump is over:

 

[mchammer]

I think this is true: PA is the best chance for Trump to win in Midwest battleground states.

 

[mb227]

National poll means nothing. State polling gives a better view insofar as electoral votes go...but even then, I don't trust 'em.

 

[mchammer]

National poll means nothing. State polling gives a better view insofar as electoral votes go...but even then, I don't trust 'em.

What has been going on lately is that the national poll operations have as their part of their national poll a smaller subset for state polls. Thus you end up with a state poll with only 300-400 participants. So they are selling these as state polls when they truly aren’t.

 

[HornHuskerDad]

I don't trust 'em.

That pretty well sums up the correct approach to the pre-election polls.

 

[mchammer]

 

[Run Pincher]

I find it very interesting that is you do a search on both google and edge the results of "most accurate presidential poll" has changed dramatically over the last couple of months. It used to be Trafalgar was near or at the top. Now it can't be found and NYT/Sienna always comes out on the top. Even the dims are manipulating the search engines.

 

[mchammer]

If you apply these “handicaps”’to the current national polling, Trump is winning by 2-3% points.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

It just baffles me that someone that attractive is in Congress. We have a few pretty good looking women in Congress right now, certainly by politician standards. Lauren Boebert, AOC, Beth Van Duyne, and Katie Britt are pretty cute. Elise Stefanik, Kirsten Sinema, and Sara Jacobs have some pretty good days too. And then Anna Paulina Luna gets elected and absolutely blows them out of the water. At her very worst, she'd look better than any of them at their very best.

 

[mchammer]

 

[Monahorns]

At some point DeSantis needs a turn to do for all red states and the USA what he has done in Florida.

 

[Mr. Deez]

It's remarkable. Even big, urban counties are trending Republican. Even when Democrats win them, they aren't blowouts like they are in other states.

At some point DeSantis needs a turn to do for all red states and the USA what he has done in Florida.

I'm sure he'd like to, but a big reason why Florida has done as well as it has is that Desantis values good governance. He is a strong conservative and advocate, but he's also one who cares about doing his job well. Accordingly, even people who aren't staunch conservatives will vote for him, because they like low taxes, plentiful jobs, decent infrastructure and education, and little tolerance for crime. Most Republican primary voters don't value that very much. We like sh*t-talkers more than anything, and we kinda prefer it if they aren't very good at their jobs.

 

[Horn6721]

"Low raxes, plentiful jobs " add in low gas prices energy independent, highest unemployment among minority groups highest number of business startups among minority groups getting rid of onerous meaningless gov't regulations etc etc
Hmmm does that sound like someone else cared about doing his job well? On a national level?
Didn't even add stopping other countries from raping us.



Not a knock on DeSantis at all.

 

[mchammer]

Consistent with current polling with Trump with slightest of edges.

 

[mchammer]

Can Harris fake it till Election Day? I doubt the DNC provides a bump - no one watches these things anymore.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[HornHuskerDad]

Can Harris fake it till Election Day?

Nope. Sooner or later she'll have to state some policy positions - and those positions will be far-left. The GOP will pounce on those statements.

 

[Mr. Deez]

"Low raxes, plentiful jobs " add in low gas prices energy independent, highest unemployment among minority groups highest number of business startups among minority groups getting rid of onerous meaningless gov't regulations etc etc
Hmmm does that sound like someone else cared about doing his job well? On a national level?
Didn't even add stopping other countries from raping us.



Not a knock on DeSantis at all.

Good stuff, but most of that isn't his focus and isn't why people voted for him.