2024 GOP Primary

Since 2020, Dems have mostly lost voters to Independents. This is why the independent vote in 2024 is probably more important than base turnout.
 
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Run Pincher said:
MC help me out here for being uninformed on this topic, but how are these numbers determined? I've never selected a party in any state I've registered to vote. Do you have to select a party in the states listed?
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Yes. These are closed primary states where you have to pre-register to vote in a primary vs Texas which is an open primary state where you select your party by voting dem or GOP on the day of the primary. Remember you are asked which primary ballot you want when you vote in the primary in Texas. In other states, if you are registered, you are given your primary ballot.
 
? So now with Kammie more Dems are registering to vote? Not good for Repubs. I would think if you just registered you would be more likely to vote.
 
Horn6721 said:
? So now with Kammie more Dems are registering to vote? Not good for Repubs. I would think if you just registered you would be more likely to vote.
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Dems likely paying folks now as it is close to the election. It was going to happen regardless. Not sure why you are surprised.
 
Horn6721 said:
what was going to happen regardless? Demx paying people to register?
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Yes. They spend money to register people before the election. In contrast, the GOP gains over the last 2 years were authentic and didn’t require coercion or money. Did you think Dems were just going to accept defeat lying down? The fact that Kamala was nominated at a late date is just a coincidence.
 
New state polling is out by Cook Report. They lean left big time if I recall correctly. Anyway, quick synopsis:
Trump up big in NV, tied in GA, and -1 in PA. Trump also down in MI and WI too but sort of irrelevant. If Trump wins GA and PA, it’s over. Again just a 1 point shift means Trump wins ASSUMING these polls are accurate (which they are not). Also the debate with Kamala in early Sept is going to be huge.
 
Another facet of polling to consider: Trafalgar is noting the shift to Kamala has been among folks who have not followed the election AT ALL. They are just following the momo without any thought. This will change as they become more engaged as the election becomes closer. If Kamala bombs the debate, she will lose these voters. In short Kamala requires sheer brainwashing by the media for 3 months straight to make it a coin toss election. Hard to do.
 
mchammer said:
New state polling is out by Cook Report. They lean left big time if I recall correctly. Anyway, quick synopsis:
Trump up big in NV, tied in GA, and -1 in PA. Trump also down in MI and WI too but sort of irrelevant. If Trump wins GA and PA, it’s over. Again just a 1 point shift means Trump wins ASSUMING these polls are accurate (which they are not). Also the debate with Kamala in early Sept is going to be huge.
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This trash outfit has Harris +1 in NC. What a joke.
 
mchammer said:
@Mr. Deez don’t get overexcited

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It just baffles me that someone that attractive is in Congress. We have a few pretty good looking women in Congress right now, certainly by politician standards. Lauren Boebert, AOC, Beth Van Duyne, and Katie Britt are pretty cute. Elise Stefanik, Kirsten Sinema, and Sara Jacobs have some pretty good days too. And then Anna Paulina Luna gets elected and absolutely blows them out of the water. At her very worst, she'd look better than any of them at their very best.
 
Besides the weighting issues, it shows Harris winning independents. Ludicrous

 
Mr. Deez said:
It just baffles me that someone that attractive is in Congress. We have a few pretty good looking women in Congress right now, certainly by politician standards. Lauren Boebert, AOC, Beth Van Duyne, and Katie Britt are pretty cute. Elise Stefanik, Kirsten Sinema, and Sara Jacobs have some pretty good days too. And then Anna Paulina Luna gets elected and absolutely blows them out of the water. At her very worst, she'd look better than any of them at their very best.
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