2024 GOP Primary

[HornHuskerDad]

This will change as they become more engaged as the election becomes closer. If Kamala bombs the debate, she will lose these voters.

IMO, as voters become more familiar with Kamala - her past performance, her policy positions, her persona, and her ability to communicate (when not reading from a script or a teleprompter) - they will see her shortfalls.

 

[guy4321]

Does this mean there is a definition of 'woman'? How do I tag Ketanji on here?

 

[ViperHorn]

IMO, as voters become more familiar with Kamala - her past performance, her policy positions, her persona, and her ability to communicate (when not reading from a script or a teleprompter) - they will see her shortfalls.

I agree HHD, but that doesn't matter to the herd of 34-40%+ that are going to vote for her.

 

[HornHuskerDad]

I agree HHD, but that doesn't matter to the herd of 34-40%+ that are going to vote for her.

Agree, Viper - she's always going to get those votes. And DJT is always going to get the MAGA votes. I think she will start losing the "Undecided" votes as soon as they see her perform.

 

[mchammer]

What is "weighted " in polling?

Any given poll may by chance oversample Dems or women or older folks etc. If so, they can re-weight the percentages of the sub-groups to be better aligned with likely voters.

 

[Horn6721]

mc

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

I think she will start losing the "Undecided" votes as soon as they see her perform.

You must admit though, this didn't play out in Willie Brown's case.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

People have short memories - which is what the media relies on to brainwash folks. For example:

Biden beat Trump in 2020 by 4.5% nationally. If it was simply +4, Trump would have won the election.

If you take polling of this past week at face value, the race is basically tied nationally. Harris loses unless you can explain to me why Trump won’t do better in battleground states than the national average. I can see a case where Trump is doing better in dem states like CA and NY due to growing Hispanic and Black support which may not translate to more votes in GA, AZ, NV, and the Midwest but that doesn’t make a lot of sense (since those places have Hispanic and black voters too, except maybe WI and MN).

Anyway, Harris is undoubtedly going to lose 2% points at least when folks start to listen to her. It’s nearly 3 months to the election. She can’t hold this together for that long. At some point the wheels are going to fly apart. The media will put out A+ effort but her campaign is going to be a disaster.

 

[mchammer]

Ha! Emerson poll has Trump +1 in PA. Recall Trump only needs to win GA and PA to win election.

 

[mchammer]

So recent polling shows Trump winning in PA, MI and tied in WI. Trump only needs to grind Harris-Walz down 1-2 more points to win (assuming the polling is accurate- likely biased towards Harris).

 

[mchammer]

LULZ - Nate Silver, high on biased polling for Harris, says Harris chances have dropped on 2 straight days of “mediocre” polling. Dude, it doesn’t get any better for Harris this point forward. What a douche canoe.

 

[mchammer]

It just baffles me that someone that attractive is in Congress. We have a few pretty good looking women in Congress right now, certainly by politician standards. Lauren Boebert, AOC, Beth Van Duyne, and Katie Britt are pretty cute. Elise Stefanik, Kirsten Sinema, and Sara Jacobs have some pretty good days too. And then Anna Paulina Luna gets elected and absolutely blows them out of the water. At her very worst, she'd look better than any of them at their very best.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[Mr. Deez]

To quote George Costanza, "You're luscious. You're ravishing. I would give up red meat just to get a glimpse of you in a bra."

 

[Garmel]

And as history has shown it's probably several points off with trump being up by 4 or 5.

 

[Mr. Deez]

People have short memories - which is what the media relies on to brainwash folks. For example:

Biden beat Trump in 2020 by 4.5% nationally. If it was simply +4, Trump would have won the election.

If you take polling of this past week at face value, the race is basically tied nationally. Harris loses unless you can explain to me why Trump won’t do better in battleground states than the national average. I can see a case where Trump is doing better in dem states like CA and NY due to growing Hispanic and Black support which may not translate to more votes in GA, AZ, NV, and the Midwest but that doesn’t make a lot of sense (since those places have Hispanic and black voters too, except maybe WI and MN).

Anyway, Harris is undoubtedly going to lose 2% points at least when folks start to listen to her. It’s nearly 3 months to the election. She can’t hold this together for that long. At some point the wheels are going to fly apart. The media will put out A+ effort but her campaign is going to be a disaster.

One thing the could throw things off is Trump's sentencing hearing next month. Judge Merchan has largely made discretionary rulings to maximise the political impact. That could mean jailing Trump and doing so while his appeals are pending.

 

[Garmel]

One thing the could throw things off is Trump's sentencing hearing next month. Judge Merchan has largely made discretionary rulings to maximise the political impact. That could mean jailing Trump and doing so while his appeals are pending.

If he does jail Trump he gives Trump the election.

SCOTUS will also not let this conviction stand.

 

[mchammer]

One thing the could throw things off is Trump's sentencing hearing next month. Judge Merchan has largely made discretionary rulings to maximise the political impact. That could mean jailing Trump and doing so while his appeals are pending.

Yes, but I think most Americans would be appalled by that because it has backfired. Thus I think the judge may NOT jail him because of the backlash. I agree with you it’s a wild card. I think the biggest wild card is the debate before hand. If Trump wins the debate and then goes to jail, it will be an easy Trump win.

 

[mchammer]

If the judge had any brains and not TDS-crazed, he would do something like jail on the weekends or community service at an illegal migrant facility, etc. just enough to embarrass Trump but not enough to trigger a full backlash. But that requires logic and brains and the crazy left doesn’t have that.

 

[HornHuskerDad]

It’s nearly 3 months to the election. She can’t hold this together for that long. At some point the wheels are going to fly apart. The media will put out A+ effort but her campaign is going to be a disaster.

Nailed it! Once she has to start defending (a) her waffling on policies and (b) the record of the Biden administration, she's toast. Add in the fact that she talks in word salad - the voters will see through her pretty quickly.

 

[SabreHorn]

Only way Trump wins the debate is to sit down and shut up!

85% of the voting populous don't understand the issues and have ZERO interest in being educated. They won't understand what he's talking about but will understand when he is arrogant and nasty.

 

[OrangeShogun]

85% of the voting populous don't understand the issues and have ZERO interest in being educated. They won't understand what he's talking about but will understand when he is arrogant and nasty.

Unfortunately, this is probably pretty accurate, in which case, this country is so f*cked, there's really no use worrying about it.
The American people no longer care about real world policy issues. It's all about sound bite window dressing and feelgood politics.