2024 MLB Draft--Thomas Round 2; LBJ Round 5; Witt Round 14

I think most of us have known that Sykora was a pipe dream, and probably the same with Gasparino.

They've seen what Witt can do, and MLB teams frequently deal with players coming back from TJ surgery.

I'm happy for Dylan Campbell that the big leagues have taken notice of his skills. I could see him gunning down plenty of runners who are trying to make it home from 2nd base, like Andre Dawson or someone... He would also do really well at one of those huge expansive outfield parks that reward OF with speed and lots of range. That arm and his speed may push him up even higher in the draft. And his power hitting has been noticed.

I think LBJ is probably gone. Hopefully the Astros or Rangers pick him up.

I'm a little surprised that Hurley (and G-Wagon) are as high as they are, but more power to them if the get the big $$$ offers.

I'm only mildly concerned that Tunis might get drafted and get a good enough offer to take. Tunis is ranked #475. He could be an immediate impact pitcher here--either in the pen or starting. I had thought he would be in the pen as a Freshman, but you just don't know. He was really good in high school against Greater Houston competition. Maybe he'll start here as early as next year (mid-week or Sunday).

The scouts seriously underestimate the value of Lucas Gordon, IMHO. The missing piece is further development of his 3rd pitch, the slider. His changeups are as good as you'll see, and his fastball placement and control are there. Some of these MLB scouts take a nap if the pitching prospect isn't clocking fastballs at 95+ mph on the radar gun. (I disagree with that philosophy, but it's prevalent)

Zane is probably gone, but he might not get the greatest offer sitting at #437. But, when you throw up to 97-98 mph, and you've got a good breaking pitch or two, MLB scouts notice.
 
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More evidence that the better college players aren't always considered the better MLB prospects.

In college: Gordon >>> Hurley
MLB scouts: "We'll take Hurley over Gordon"

There's even an outside shot that Geno returns for 1 more year. I think he would still have 1 more year of eligibility after that, so his contract negotiating leverage doesn't go out the window. The same thing could be said for Zane if his offer/bonus isn't very good.
 
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Chop said:
I'm happy for Dylan Campbell that the big leagues have taken notice of his skills. I could see him gunning down plenty of runners who are trying to make it home from 2nd base, like Andre Dawson or someone... He would also do really well at one of those huge expansive outfield parks that reward OF with speed and lots of range. That arm and his speed may push him up even higher in the draft. And his power hitting has been noticed.
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I'm definitely no "swing mechanics" guy, but he sure gets that bat around blazing fast on inside pitches.
 
Each club's 2022 MLB Draft bonus pools and pick values
MLB Draft slot values: Here's how much money each pick is worth in 2022

(the guys picked above the 5th round...consider them gone... It gets to be a trickier decision, the farther down the draft you go)

What are MLB Draft slot values? (max. bonus w/o a penalty to team)
For the first 10 rounds of the MLB Draft, teams are given a certain amount of bonus money to spend on the players they select. Each draft position is assigned a bonus value, or a slot. Teams that spend "over slot" for a player can be penalized.

Teams will often draft a player higher than they were projected to be selected in the hope of signing them to a "below-slot" deal, and then use the savings to sign picks later in the draft that might cost more.

5th Round Slot Value $$$$ - 2022 Draft

137) Orioles: $426,800
138) D-backs: $422,600
139) Rangers: $418,500
140) Pirates: $414,600
141) Nationals: $410,500
142) Marlins: $406,500
143) Cubs: $402,400
144) Twins: $398,500
145) Royals: $394,500
146) Rockies: $390,800
147) Tigers: $386,900
148) Angels: $383,200
149) Mets: $379,400
150) Padres: $375,500
151) Guardians: $371,800
152) Phillies: $368,300
153) Reds: $364,600
154) Athletics: $361,000
155) Braves: $357,400
156) Mariners: $353,900
157) Cardinals: $350,400
158) Blue Jays: $347,000
159) Red Sox: $344,000
160) Yankees: $340,700
161) White Sox: $337,600
162) Brewers: $334,500
163) Astros: $331,600
164) Rays: $328,400
165) Dodgers: $325,400
166) Giants: $322,600



7th Round Slot Value $$$$ - 2022 Draft

197) Orioles: $249,200
198) D-backs: $247,200
199) Rangers: $245,000
200) Pirates: $243,000
201) Nationals: $241,600
202) Marlins: $239,500
203) Cubs: $237,500
204) Twins: $235,600
205) Royals: $233,600
206) Rockies: $231,600
207) Tigers: $229,800
208) Angels: $227,800
209) Mets: $226,000
210) Padres: $224,300
211) Guardians: $222,400
212) Phillies: $220,600
213) Reds: $219,000
214) Athletics: $217,200
215) Braves: $215,400
216) Mariners: $213,900
217) Cardinals: $212,000
218) Blue Jays: $210,500
219) Red Sox: $208,800
220) Yankees: $207,500
221) White Sox: $205,800
222) Brewers: $204,500
223) Astros: $202,900
224) Rays: $201,400
225) Dodgers: $199,900
226) Giants: $198,700



10th Round Slot Value $$$$ - 2022 Draft

287) Orioles: $155,800
288) D-backs: $155,500
289) Rangers: $155,300
290) Pirates: $155,000
291) Nationals: $154,800
292) Marlins: $154,600
293) Cubs: $154,300
294) Twins: $153,800
295) Royals: $153,600
296) Rockies: $153,200
297) Tigers: $153,000
298) Angels: $152,800
299) Mets: $152,500
300) Padres: $152,200
301) Guardians: $152,000
302) Phillies: $151,800
303) Reds: $151,500
304) Athletics: $151,300
305) Braves: $151,000
306) Mariners: $150,900
307) Cardinals: $150,600
308) Blue Jays: $150,400
309) Red Sox: $150,000
310) Yankees: $149,800
311) White Sox: $149,600
312) Brewers: $149,600
313) Astros: $149,600
314) Rays: $149,600
315) Dodgers: $149,600
316) Giants: $149,500
 
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I think Gordon should go, he's ready, i don't usually say that but he's about as ready as he will be, he's reached his potential, might as well get the money while he can. I don't know if he will have a better career than Hurley. Hurley has a better off speed pitch and I think there is a lot of velocity on the table, in my opinion. Both of them have work to do to be successful in the bigs and both are capable. AND he could get hurt next year, he pitched a lot of inning this year, that could be why his draft estimate is low too.

Ditto for LBJ and Morehouse.

I think Powell is ready, more than EK was the year before. That might surprise some but he has a lot to lose if he gets hurt next year same as Gordon, so I think he's gone.


For whatever reason, i just expect GG will be gone, he's not ready but I am not expecting him to return.

If any of them return then i do the happy dance and start projecting how well we might do next year. We ended our season exactly where I projected before the season started this year. In the super regional with a chance at Omaha. We achieved our potential this year.

I could definitely be wrong about who comes or goes, i know Phil would love to point that out but i'm 51 and don't care if I'm right or wrong, just here to discuss horns baseball. :yes:

There sure are a lot of MLB managers, scouts and Head coaches that are wrong on draft day so I have good company. :smokin:
 
aUTfan said:
Any reports out there Chop that point out why Gordon is so low?
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I haven't read any such reports. But, I think it's the max 92mph or so velocity on his fastball, and not having fully developed a solid 3rd pitch. He's still working on his slider, maybe he could work on the curve. If he was still available after round 6 or so, I'd jump on that opportunity and get a bargain. IMHO, he could work up a really good slider (or curveball) in a couple of years in the Minors--which is where he'll be for a couple of years in any event. But, I'm no MLB Scout, and they have their metrics, etc. I disagree with them, but I've never built a pennant winning MLB team, so what do I know?

Gordon is a Smoltz, not a Randy Johnson. Gordon has about the same fastball velocity as Smoltz and relies on some wicked changeups too. Of course, Smoltz is a Hall of Fame level MLB pitcher.

At the end of the day, it's gotta be his velocity and unproven 3rd pitch...
 
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Chop said:
Top Baseball Draft Prospects
2023 MLB Draft: The Top 500 Prospects - Future Stars Series
(When in conflict, the "Top Baseball Draft Prospects" link above--from MLB .com ranking is listed)

Projections:

31 Travis Sykora
41 Tanner Witt
73 Will Gasparino
168 Dylan Campbell
170 LBJ
383 Garrett Guillemette
388 Charlie Hurley
437 Zane Morehouse
462 Lucas Gordon
475 Easton Tunis

MLB Draft: 20 Rounds; 614 Picks
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When I checked that link I could not find Dylan Campbell at all and Will Gasparino was a different number. The MLB top prospects ranking (Top Baseball Draft Prospects) does have those same numbers you listed. I guess that is what you were referring to. Interestingly, Dylan is not on a couple of other top 400 and 500 lists I have seen. I know it is pie in the sky but I sure would like to see him, Porter, Peyton, and Garrett return. Morehouse is also ranked higher than Lucas in a couple of those lists. I am not sure I want him back, but Hurley might be okay.
 
RS said:
When I checked that link I could not find Dylan Campbell at all and Will Gasparino was a different number. The MLB top prospects ranking (Top Baseball Draft Prospects) does have those same numbers you listed. I guess that is what you were referring to. Interestingly, Dylan is not on a couple of other top 400 and 500 lists I have seen. I know it is pie in the sky but I sure would like to see him, Porter, Peyton, and Garrett return. Morehouse is also ranked higher than Lucas in a couple of those lists. I am not sure I want him back, but Hurley might be okay.
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I think the link is fluid; they may rank and re-rank them frequently.
 
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RS said:
When I checked that link I could not find Dylan Campbell at all and Will Gasparino was a different number. The MLB top prospects ranking (Top Baseball Draft Prospects) does have those same numbers you listed. I guess that is what you were referring to. Interestingly, Dylan is not on a couple of other top 400 and 500 lists I have seen. I know it is pie in the sky but I sure would like to see him, Porter, Peyton, and Garrett return. Morehouse is also ranked higher than Lucas in a couple of those lists. I am not sure I want him back, but Hurley might be okay.
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I think Powell will be back. G Wagon and Brown could be maybes. I doubt Campbell, Gordon, or Morehouse will be back.
 
It only takes one team to like a guy. Not sure any Nostradamus had Overshown going round 3. Actually, I did see him in one or tw mocks going round 3.

Teams are nuts if they don’t draft Campbell. Outside of his apparent skills, he improved considerably defensively which reflects positively on work ethic and ability to learn.
 
Your Wrong said:
Teams are nuts if they don’t draft Campbell. Outside of his apparent skills, he improved considerably defensively which reflects positively on work ethic and ability to learn.
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I strongly agree with this sentiment. Power bat+speed+range+cannon arm.
 
aUTfan said:
Any reports out there Chop that point out why Gordon is so low?
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Here you go:

"Gordon is mostly a two-pitch guy right now, but he flashes a plus changeup that tumbles to the plate with solid separation off his low-90s fastball. Gordon can get up to 94, but more comfortably rests 90-91 on most occasions. His breaking ball is usually below average, showing average at its best. He'll need to develop better feel for spin in 2023 should he hope to reach his top-two-round potential."

2023 MLB Draft: The Top 400 Prospects - Future Stars Series
 
Pro scouting report on Morehouse:

"Evaluators like the operation and ease he shows on the mound. Fastball sits in the mid-90s in bullpen role with a mid-80s slider that shows good depth when he's right. Morehouse gave up a lot of loud contact this season but does possess fringe average control and command and that could tick up considering his athleticism on the mound. Some teams may want to flirt with him in a starting role, but his stuff does play much louder in short stints."

2023 MLB Draft: The Top 400 Prospects - Future Stars Series
 
Pro Scouting Report on The G-Wagon:

"Guillemette, a transfer out of Southern California, took the reigns behind the plate with the departure of Silas Ardoin this season and never looked back. He's an accomplished contact hitter who sprays the ball all over the park. He hardly ever strikes out and has some pull-side thunder if a pitcher leaves something soft spinning over the plate. Guillemette has defensive tools too. He's quick out of the crouch and possesses an above average arm. He projects to stay behind the plate at the next level and could hit enough to command considerable playing time as a full-time backstop or heavily-used platoon option."

2023 MLB Draft: The Top 400 Prospects - Future Stars Series
 
Chop said:
I think Powell will be back. G Wagon and Brown could be maybes. I doubt Campbell, Gordon, or Morehouse will be back.
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It would be awesome if he did but he’s just as ready as campbell is for the MLB in my opinion.

He would be our top hitter along with Thomas.

I would sure like to see a solid weekend starter on our staff that hasn’t had injury problems.
 
I would think the pro scouts would view Powell's current weakness as hitting to the opposite field. Now, in the major leagues, they're not letting teams make those big defensive shifts anymore, so maybe that's not such a big deal...? I haven't found Powell ranked in any of the draft prospects.

Another thing is that we basically have only 1 year of data for Powell. Prior to last year he barely played at all. And I couldn't tell you much about his swing mechanics or bat speed.
 
Is this the first year the draft drops from 40 rounds to 20 and we see a reduction in the monor league system?

If anyone thinks college ball is tough to win in now, just wait a couple years for all these extra developmental players to hit college ball instead of lower minor league and rookie ball. Especially since Texas can't seem to figure out how to get NIL money to the baseball program. Rod Babers mentioned yesterday the baseball program gets 0.1% of the total university NIL money. Mind blowing. If that's not fixed we'll get squashed in the SEC.
 
Vol Horn 4 Life said:
just wait a couple years for all these extra developmental players to hit college ball instead of lower minor league and rookie ball.
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That could be when UNT, UT-Arlington, Angelo State, UTRGV, UIW, and Abilene Christian start to have really good baseball teams.
 
Chop said:
That could be when UNT, UT-Arlington, Angelo State, UTRGV, UIW, and Abilene Christian start to have really good baseball teams.
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And bigger picture, as they develop those players the high quality player portal pool will get significantly bigger and teams with strong baseball NIL packages like LSU will get even better. I hate the current NIL even though our football program is the richest NIL program in the country.
 
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